MIAMI-SOUTH FLORIDA
National Weather Service
Forecast Office
http://www.weather.gov/miami
SOUTH FLORIDA WINTER 2023-2024 SUMMARY
Near Normal Temperatures and Above Normal Rainfall
March 1, 2024: If you noticed a difference between this winter and the past several in
South Florida, you are right! The 2023-2024 winter can be characterized as cooler than
many we’ve recently experienced, as well as more cloudy/less sunny days than an
average winter. From an average temperature standpoint, it was the coolest winter at
most locations since 2014-2015. What led to these conditions?
The prevailing winter weather pattern was typical of El Niño winters in North America,
characterized by a stronger-than-normal mid to upper-level high pressure over most of
Canada and the northern third of the U.S., and a strip of slightly stronger than normal
low pressure over the southern tier of the U.S., including Florida (Figure 1). The
subtropical branch of the jet stream in the upper levels was mainly positioned over the
northern Gulf of Mexico and SE U.S. (Figure 2). Central U.S. and mid-Atlantic states.,
reflecting a general storm track that was farther south than normal. This pattern led to
an increase in winter cloudiness/storminess across South Florida, as well as more
frequent cold fronts passing through the region. The active nature and more southerly
location of the subtropical jet stream also contributed in keeping the polar or northern
branch of the jet stream weaker and farther north across North America. This prevented
air masses of arctic origin from penetrating too far south across the United States,
therefore we ended up with fewer cool/cold days along with fewer warm days.
Following is a summary of Winter 2023-2024 temperature and precipitation, as well as
significant weather events.
Figure 1: 500 mb height anomalies for December 2023-February 2024. Yellow colors reflect stronger high
pressure at the 500 mb level, and blue colors reflect stronger low pressure
Figure 2: 250 mb mean wind for December 2023-February 2024. Red colors reflect the mean position of the
upper-level jet stream and general winter storm track
Temperatures
Average winter temperatures were near normal across South Florida (Figures 3 and 4),
generally within a half-degree of normal. The average daily maximum temperatures
were near to slightly below normal, largely due to the higher number of cloudy days
keeping daytime temperatures lower. On the other hand, more cloudiness tends to
keep temperatures milder at night, and this along with a greater frequency of air masses
of maritime origin than of continental/arctic origin contributed to average daily
minimum temperatures being slightly above normal.
Figure 3: Temperature Departure from Normal across Florida for December 2023-February 2024
Figure 4: Average winter temperatures 2017-2024 for main South Florida climate sites
A closer look at the frequency of temperature extremes this winter clearly spells this
out. The number of 80+ degree days (defined arbitrarily as “warm”) ranged from 22
days in Naples to 27 days in Miami, well below the 30-year normal and less than half of
last year’s record warm winter. On the flip side, the lowest temperatures recorded this
winter set records for the “warmest” seasonal minimums at Miami (52F), Fort
Lauderdale (51F), and Naples (45F), and at West Palm Beach (47F) the warmest seasonal
minimum since 1949-1950.
The lack of air masses of continental/arctic in origin across South Florida following cold
fronts this winter is best exemplified in the lowest regional temperature at NWS sites of
only 42F in Ortona Lock in Glades County on January 21
st
. No freezing temperatures
were noted even when looking at unofficial readings which can often be lower than at
official NWS sites.
Below are graphics with additional temperature data for the four main climate sites in
South Florida:
Figure 5: Number of days of sub-70F degree highs and/or sub-50F degree lows.
Figure 6: Number of days greater than or equal to 80 degrees F
Figure 7: Daily temperature data for Miami International Airport for December 2023- February 2024. This is
generally representative of winter temperature trends at all South Florida locations
Here are average December 2023-February 2024 temperatures, departure from normal
in degrees F and ranking for the four main South Florida climate sites:
Location (beginning of
period of historical record)
Dec 2022-
Feb 2023
Avg Temp
Normal (F)
Miami (1895)
70.3
Fort Lauderdale (1912)
69.9
West Palm Beach (1888)
68.3
Naples (1942)
66.6
Other noteworthy statistics and data:
- Miami International Airport: The highest temperature recorded was 89 degrees set on
December 3
rd
, and the lowest temperature recorded was 52 degrees on January 1
st
and
21
st
. The temperature reached or exceeded 80 degrees on 27 days, well below the 30-
year average of 43 days. There were no days below 50 degrees (30-year average is 6).
- Palm Beach International Airport: The highest temperature recorded was 87 degrees
on January 12
th
and February 12
th
, and the lowest temperature recorded was 47 degrees
on December 31
st
. The temperature reached or exceeded 80 degrees on 20 days, which
is well below the 30-year average of 34 days. The number of days below 50 degrees was
6 which is well below the 30-year average of 14 days.
- Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood International Airport: The highest temperature recorded
was 87 degrees on December 3
rd
, and the lowest temperature recorded was 51 degrees
on January 21
st
. The temperature reached or exceeded 80 degrees on 25 days, well
below the 30-year average of 35 days. There were no days below 50 degrees (30-year
average is 8).
- Naples Municipal Airport: The highest temperature recorded was 84 degrees on
December 1
st
, December 9
th
, and January 25
th
, and the lowest temperature recorded
was 45 degrees on January 21
st
. The temperature reached or exceeded 80 degrees on 22
days, well below the 30-year average of 37 days. The number of days below 50 degrees
was 4 which is well below the 30-year average of 17.
Precipitation
As indicated above, the more southern mean position of the upper-level jet stream
favored more frequent storm systems to track across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida,
causing this winter’s precipitation to be mostly above normal.
Rainfall amounts were quite uniform across the region, mainly in the 7–10-inch range.
Relative to normal, these values were about 1-3 inches above normal over most
locations, and as much as 4 inches or more above normal over parts of SW Florida. The
wetter than normal winter helped to alleviate and eventually end the drought over SW
Florida which had persisted for most of 2023.
Despite the above normal rainfall, there were still fairly long stretches of dry weather
which is typical of a South Florida winter.
Much of this winter’s rainfall occurred in association with a few events. Two notable
rainfall events include:
- 2-5 inches of rain fell mainly north of a Naples to Fort Lauderdale line on February 18
th
and 19
th
, in association with a strong low pressure area which tracked from the Gulf of
Mexico across South Florida
- Another strong low pressure system tracking eastward from the Gulf across the Florida
peninsula on December 16
th
and 17
th
led to a large area of 2-4 inches of rain across
Broward and Palm Beach counties.
Figure 8: Observed Precipitation for Winter 2023-2024
Figure 9: Departure from Normal Precipitation for Winter 2023-2024
Following are December 2023-February 2024 rainfall totals, departure from normal in
inches and ranking for selected locations:
Location (Beginning of Period of
Record)
Dec 2023-
Feb 2024
Rainfall
(inches)
Departure
from
Normal
Top 20
Rank
Cape Florida (1998)
8.78
+2.10
Devils Garden (1956)
7.64
+1.74
17
th
Wettest
Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood Int'l (1912)
8.31
+0.25
Fort Lauderdale Exec. Airport (1998)
10.65
+3.53
4
th
Wettest
Fort Lauderdale Dixie Water Plant
8.90
+0.56
Hialeah (1942)
7.23
+0.11
Hollywood Water Plant (2000)
9.32
+1.29
Homestead General Airport (1990)
9.23
+3.55
3
rd
Wettest
Marco Island (2002)
9.43
+3.31
3
rd
Wettest
Miami International Airport (1895)
7.77
+1.35
Moore Haven (1917)
8.08
+2.15
14
th
Wettest
Muse (2009)
10.85
+4.45
2
nd
Wettest
Naples Municipal Airport (1942)
8.42
+4.02
12
th
Wettest
NWS Miami (1999)
8.15
+1.53
Opa-Locka Airport (1998)
7.22
+0.58
Palm Beach Gardens (2002)
7.61
-2.17
Palm Beach International Airport (1888)
9.65
+0.07
Pembroke Pines North Perry Apt (1999)
8.09
+0.37
Pompano Beach Airpark
11.08
+4.69
The Redland (1942)
9.53
+2.97
8
th
Wettest
West Kendall/Miami Exec. Airport
7.81
+1.83
Severe Thunderstorms/Tornadoes/Flooding
The active subtropical jet stream this winter set the stage for a few episodes of strong
low pressure systems tracking eastward across the southern tier of the U.S., Gulf of
Mexico, and Florida. These systems caused periods of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and
severe weather. Three of the most notable events include:
- December 13-17: Strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. and low pressure over the
NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico led to several days of strong and gusty winds. NE
to E winds frequently reached 40 mph or higher in gusts, then turned SE and S on the
16
th
and 17
th
as low pressure formed over the southern Gulf and moved east across
Florida. Bands of strong showers moved through the region, causing wind gusts of 50-60
mph. In addition, tides reached flooding levels in Flamingo where several vehicles were
damaged by flood waters, as well as along portions of the east coast beaches
- January 6
th
: low pressure over North Florida dragged a cold front across the Florida
peninsula. Ahead of the front, strong thunderstorms developed over South Florida and
spawned an EF-0 tornado in Fort Lauderdale. Funnel clouds were also sighted near
Moore Haven in Glades County
- February 4
th
: strong low pressure at the surface and aloft over the NE Gulf of Mexico
swept a cold front through South Florida. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms
moved rapidly through the area, with wind gusts of 40 mph common. An area of
damaging winds of 60-70 mph affected central and eastern sections of Miami-Dade
County, causing tree damage over locations from West Kendall to Coral Gables
- February 18
th
: A strong cold front coupled with an upper-level jet stream across South
Florida caused strong showers to form over southern portions of South Florida. A series
of EF-0 tornadoes affected Miami-Dade and Broward counties in association with some
of the strong showers, causing damage primarily to trees
Outlook for March-May
The outlook by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the period from March through
May (Figures 10 and 11) leans towards above normal temperatures and precipitation
across South Florida. Even though El Niño is expected to wane this spring, its lingering
influence could lead to additional storm systems affecting Florida with increased rainfall
and severe weather potential through May.
The near to above normal rainfall this winter has helped to keep groundwater levels at
high levels, and thus deceasing the significant wildfire potential as we head into the first
few weeks of spring. Thus, the significant wildland fire potential is below normal
through May for all of South Florida. Nevertheless, even brief dry periods during the
spring months can combine with gusty winds and increasing temperatures to cause
conditions conducive for wildfires to form during what is considered the peak of wildfire
season. All persons are urged to take measures to reduce the chance of wildfires. Visit
the Florida Forest Service web site for more information on how to help prevent
wildfires.
Spring also brings periods of strong and gusty winds to the area along with an increase
in beach-goers. This significantly increases the risk of rip currents at all South Florida
beaches. A sharp increase in rip current-related drowning deaths and rescues occurs
during the spring months due in part to this shift in the wind patterns and more people
in the water. All residents and visitors visiting area beaches are strongly urged to heed
the advice of Ocean Rescue lifeguards and swim near a lifeguard. Visit the National
Weather Service Rip Current Awareness page for more information.
For the latest south Florida weather information, including the latest watches,
advisories and warnings, please visit the National Weather Service Miami Forecast
Office’s web site at weather.gov/southflorida.
Figures 10 and 11: NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook for March-May.