June 30, 2021
To: Joint Legislative Education Oversight Committee
Senate Education/Higher Education Committee
House Education K-12 Committee
Department of Public Instruction
State Board of Education
Department of Health and Human Services
Office of the Governor
Re: “The Reopen Our Schools Act of 2021” (S.L. 2021-4)
ABC Science Collaborative, Final Report, June 2021
Dear Members,
Enclosed, please find the final report and analysis of data from North Carolina schools operating
in Plan A from March 2021 through June 2021.
As directed by the legislation, the NC Department of Public Instruction engaged the ABC
Science Collaborative (through the Duke Clinical Research Institute) to collate, analyze, and
interpret COVID-19 data from middle and high schools in Plan A. We refer to this initiative as
the ABCs of North Carolina’s Plan A, and we have posted this final report, an accompanying lay
summary and short video, and other materials at this link for your reference.
Final Report for NC School Districts and Charters in Plan A
As of June 29, the NC DHHS had notified the ABC Science Collaborative that 100 school
districts and 14 charter schools operated in Plan A from March 2021 through June 2021. All 100
school districts signed data use agreements with us and complied with the legislation.
Those 100 reporting school districts and 14 charter schools represented 2,396 elementary,
middle, and high schools and administrative buildings and more than 864,515 students who
attended in-school instruction and 160,549 staff who worked in school and administrative
buildings. Including students who received online instruction, the districts represented a total of
1,281,202 students.
The charts below show data about COVID-19 primary cases and in-school transmission
(secondary) cases through June 25. We also provide district and school policy on physical
distancing, the number of students per bus seat, and the number of students and staff who
quarantined during the reporting period.
Interpretation
Our analysis of the data shows:
North Carolina schools did an outstanding job preventing within-school transmission of
COVID‐19.
There is very limited within‐school transmission of COVID‐19 in schools
participating in Plan A.
6,484 primary cases among students and 1106 primary cases among
staff
308 secondary cases among students and 55 secondary cases among
staff.
The estimated secondary attack rate (of all people quarantined who
acquired COVID) is <1%
Wearing masks is an effective strategy to prevent in-school COVID-19
transmission.
Schools that follow the strategies in the NCDHHS StrongSchoolsNC
Public Health Toolkit (K‐12) and adhere to the mask mandate effectively
mitigate within‐school transmission of COVID‐19 in Plan A.
Distance does not predict the spread of COVID-19 when students/staff/teachers are
masked.
Within‐school transmission of COVID‐19 in Plan A (full in-person instruction with
minimal physical distancing) is similar to the within‐school transmission in Plan B
(hybrid instruction to enable six feet of physical distancing).
Masking is adequate to prevent within-school COVID-19 transmission, with no
difference between schools requiring greater than 3 feet of distance between
students compared to those requiring less than 3 feet. Distance did not predict
infection.
Data show no difference in secondary transmission between school districts that
offered 1, 2, or 3 students to a bus seat.
Athletics, although safe in NC schools this past year, likely has a higher secondary
attack rate than the within-classroom environment.
What This Means for NC Schools
Our scientific analysis of data provided directly from 100 school districts and 14 charter schools
in North Carolina from March through June 2021, representing more than 864,515 students and
160,549 staff, indicates that:
Proper masking is the most effective mitigation strategy to prevent secondary
transmission in schools when COVID-19 is circulating and when vaccination is
unavailable, or there is insufficient uptake.
Plan A – full in-person instruction – is appropriate for all grades, all schools,
w
hen masking is in place. There is not a medical reason to provide Plan B or fully
r
emote instruction if masking is provided
Fu
ll-capacity bus transportation appropriate, with up to three masked students
pe
r bus seat
Current quarantine guidelines have resulted in more than 40,000 students and staff
being quarantined. Thus, over 100 people were quarantined for every within-school
infection. Due to the low transmission rate (an estimated secondary attack rate of 1%),
and in orde
r to promote in-person education, the State should consider eliminating
q
uarantine for those appropriately masked or vaccinated.
What’s Next
These findings, coupled with the current scientific literature for COVID-19 transmission and
mitigation strategies for K-12 schools, should encourage the NC DPI and DHHS to consider
updating the StrongSchools NC Public Health Toolkit (K-12) for the 2021-2022 school year.
To help school leaders and policymakers in North Carolina, across the nation, and worldwide
make data-driven decisions, the ABC Science Collaborative has prepared “COVID-19 and
Schools: The Year in Review and a Path Forward” provides a set of key takeaways to help plan
a path forward for safely resuming in-person instruction during the 2021-2022 school year.
Thank you for the opportunity to serve and assist the State of North Carolina. We look forward
to discussing this with you in the coming weeks.
Regards,
The co-chairs of the ABC Science Collaborative:
Daniel K. Benjamin,
Digitally signed by Daniel K.
MD, MPH, PhD
Benjamin, MD, MPH, PhD
Date: 2021.06.29 22:50:36 -04'00'
Danny Benjamin, MD MPH Ph.D.,
Kanecia Zimmerman,
Digitally signed by Kanecia
Zimmerman, MD, MPH
MD, MPH
Date: 2021.06.29 22:49:08 -04'00'
Kanecia Zimmerman, MD MPH
Table 1: NC LEAs and Charter Schools in Plan A, LEA Size and COVID-19 Transmission
LEA Size
Number of Districts
Number of Children
COVID-19 Transmission
Primary
Small
42
84,040
525
Medium
35
235,451
1780
Large
23
539,485
4142
Charters
-
5,539
37
Total
100
864,515
6,484
Table 2: NC LEAs and Charter Schools in Plan A, Region, and COVID-19 Transmission
Region
Number of
Districts
Number of
Children
COVID-19 Transmission
Primary
Secondary
North Central Region
12
169,295
1623
30
Northeast Region
14
42,292
262
5
Northwest Region
13
57,249
406
34
Piedmont Triad Region
13
141,763
794
54
Sandhills Region
13
75,345
515
50
Southeast Region
12
108,140
832
37
Southwest Region
11
207,098
1624
73
Western Region
12
57,794
391
25
Charters
-
5,539
37
0
100
864,515
6,484
308
Table 3: NC LEAs in Plan A, Bus Practice and COVID-19 Transmission
Bus
Practice
Number of
Districts
Number of Children in LEAs
Reporting Bus Practice
COVID-19 Transmission
Primary
Secondary
1
11
26,008
175
4
2
68
586,633
3955
183
3
16
199,139
1836
87
Other
5
39,252
481
34
Total
100
858,976
6447
308
** Charter Schools are not included in the above table
Table 4: NC LEAs in Plan A, Distancing and COVID-19 Transmission
Physical
Distance
Number of
Districts
Number of Children in LEAs
Reporting
COVID-19 Transmission
Primary
Secondary
<3
21
203,919
1879
77
3
69
568,526
3807
185
≥6
6
26,817
152
0
None
4
59,714
609
46
Total
100
858,976
6447
308
Table 5: NC LEAs and Charters in Plan A, LEA Size, Quarantine*
LEA Size
Number of Districts
Number Quarantined
Small
41
9,070
Medium
37
14,357
Large
20
18,394
Charter
-
157
Total
98**
41,978
* Data submitted by June 28. Missing Davidson County Schools and Elizabeth City-Pasquotank Public Schools
Table 6: NC LEAs and Charters in Plan A, LEA Region Quarantine*
Region
Number of Districts
Number Quarantined
North Central Region
12
8595
Northeast Region
13
3321
Northwest Region
13
4038
Piedmont Triad Region
13
3885
Sandhills Region
13
4350
Southeast Region
12
4234
Southwest Region
10
9254
Western Region
12
4144
Charter
-
157
Total
98**
41,978
* Data submitted by June 28. Missing Davidson County Schools and Elizabeth City-Pasquotank Public Schools
Table Definition:
District Size: Defined by baseline numbers of individuals attending in-person school, Small (<5,000), Medium
(5,000-15,000), Large (>15,000)
Bus Practice: Districts reported the number of students permitted to share a seat: this could be <2, 2, or 3. Several
districts reported different practices or changes during the period of instruction.
Infections: Primary defined as the initial person (student or staff) identified with confirmed or presumptive infections.
Secondary defined as persons (student or staff) with confirmed or presumptive infection after close contact with
exposure to a case. If the contact occurred in a school setting or school-sponsored event, these secondary cases are
typically described as secondary transmissions with the school setting.
Appendices
Appendix A - LEAs in Plan A – Bus Seat Occupancy and Physical Distancing
LEA Districts
Plan A
Start Date
Number
of
Schools
2020-21
School
Year ADM
(Month 2)
Bus Seat
Occupancy
Physical
Distancing
(ft)
Alleghany County Schools
3/29/2021
4
1293
2
3'
Ashe County Schools
3/29/2021
6
2813
2
3'
Asheboro City Schools
4/6/2021
8
4418
1
3'
Avery County Schools
3/12/2021
9
1821
1
3'
Beaufort County Schools
3/22/2021
14
5887
2
3'
Bladen County Schools
4/12/2021
13
3868
2
<3'
Brunswick County Schools
4/12/2021
19
12060
3
3'
Buncombe County Schools
3/21/2021
44
22031
2
3'
Burke County Schools
4/12/2021
26
11392
2
<3'
Cabarrus County Schools
4/13/2021
39
32668
3
None
Caldwell County Schools
4/12/2021
26
10591
2
3'
Camden County Schools
3/29/2021
5
1758
2
3'
Carteret County Public Schools
3/29/2021
18
7743
3
≥6'
Catawba County Schools
4/12/2021
28
15335
2
3'
Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools
4/12/2021
175
138884
2
3'
Chatham County Schools
4/12/2021
18
8614
2
3'
Clay County Schools
3/22/2021
3
1172
2
<3'
Cleveland County Schools
4/12/2021
29
13791
3
<3'
Clinton City Schools
4/13/2021
5
2891
2
<3'
Columbus County Schools
4/12/2021
17
5162
2
3'
Craven County Schools
4/15/2021
25
12460
2
3'
Cumberland County Schools
4/12/2021
87
48185
2
3'
Currituck County Schools
3/22/2021
10
4078
2
3'
Dare County Schools
4/13/2021
11
5031
1
3'
Davidson County Schools
4/12/2021
36
17751
2
3'
Duplin County Schools
3/22/2021
13
9394
2
3'
Edenton-Chowan Schools
4/12/2021
4
1818
2
3'
Edgecombe County Public Schools
4/14/2021
14
5294
2
3'
Elizabeth City-Pasquotank Public Schools
4/12/2021
13
4749
3
3'
Elkin City Schools
4/12/2021
3
1216
2
3'
Franklin County Schools
4/12/2021
16
7724
3
<3'
Gaston County Schools
4/12/2021
55
29318
2
<3'
Gates County Schools
4/20/2021
5
1456
1
≥6'
Graham County Schools
3/22/2021
3
1062
Other
3'
Granville County Schools
4/19/2021
18
6816
2
<3'
LEA Districts
Plan A
Start Date
Number
of
Schools
2020-21
School
Year ADM
(Month 2)
Bus Seat
Occupancy
Physical
Distancing
(ft)
Greene County Schools
4/13/2021
3
2700
2
3'
Guilford County Schools
4/19/2021
124
68264
2
3'
Halifax County Schools
4/19/2021
11
2052
2
≥6'
Harnett County Schools
4/12/2021
28
19256
2
3'
Haywood County Schools
3/23/2021
15
6707
2
<3'
Henderson County Schools
3/23/2021
23
12927
2
3'
Hertford County Schools
4/15/2021
7
2571
2
3'
Hickory City Schools
4/12/2021
9
3882
2
3'
Hoke County Schools
4/12/2021
14
8342
2
≥6'
Hyde County Schools
3/15/2021
3
514
1
3'
Iredell-Statesville Schools
4/7/2021
37
20001
2
3'
Jackson County Public Schools
4/5/2021
9
3517
2
<3'
Johnston County Public Schools
4/12/2021
45
35906
3
<3'
Jones County Schools
4/12/2021
5
950
2
3'
Kannapolis City Schools
4/12/2021
8
5311
2
3'
Lee County Schools
4/12/2021
17
9174
2
3'
Lenoir County Public Schools
4/12/2021
17
8207
Other
≥6'
Lexington City Schools
4/12/2021
7
2962
1
3'
Lincoln County Schools
3/22/2021
23
11019
3
3'
Macon County Schools
4/5/2021
11
4300
2
3'
Madison County Schools
4/12/2021
7
2139
2
3'
Martin County Schools
4/12/2021
8
2636
2
3'
McDowell County Schools
3/22/2021
14
5677
3
3'
Mitchell County Schools
4/12/2021
7
1738
2
3'
Montgomery County Schools
4/1/2021
12
3495
2
3'
Moore County Schools
3/29/2021
24
12363
3
<3'
Mooresville Graded School District
4/7/2021
8
5931
2
<3'
Mount Airy City Schools
3/22/2021
4
1643
1
3'
Nash County Public Schools
4/12/2021
29
13896
3
3'
New Hanover County Schools
4/12/2021
42
25952
3
<3'
Newton Conover City Schools
4/14/2021
7
24368
2
3'
Onslow County Schools
4/6/2021
36
26864
Other
None
Pamlico County Schools
4/12/2021
4
1160
2
3'
Pender County Schools
4/6/2021
18
9344
3
3'
Perquimans County Schools
3/22/2021
4
1566
2
3'
Person County Schools
4/12/2021
11
4258
1
<3'
Pitt County Schools
4/13/2021
38
22838
2
3'
Polk County Schools
3/22/2021
7
2068
1
3'
LEA Districts
Plan A
Start Date
Number
of
Schools
2020-21
School
Year ADM
(Month 2)
Bus Seat
Occupancy
Physical
Distancing
(ft)
Public Schools of Robeson County
4/12/2021
40
20478
2
≥6'
Randolph County School System
4/6/2021
31
15049
2
<3'
Richmond County Schools
4/12/2021
15
6549
1
3'
Roanoke Rapids City Schools
3/29/2021
5
2573
1
None
Rockingham County Schools
3/30/2021
22
10825
2
3'
Rowan-Salisbury Schools
4/8/2021
34
18005
3
<3'
Rutherford County Schools
4/12/2021
18
7308
2
3'
Sampson County Schools
4/12/2021
18
7555
2
3'
Scotland County Schools
4/13/2021
12
5273
2
3'
Stanly County Schools
5/17/2021
23
8206
2
3'
Stokes County Schools
3/22/2021
19
5455
2
<3'
Surry County Schools
4/12/2021
19
7113
2
3'
Swain County Schools
4/12/2021
5
1845
2
3'
Thomasville City Schools
4/19/2021
4
2070
2
3'
Transylvania County Schools
4/12/2021
9
3181
Other
3'
Tyrrell County Schools
3/22/2021
3
541
2
3'
Union County Public Schools
4/12/2021
52
39727
3
<3'
Vance County Schools
4/12/2021
15
4954
Other
3'
Wake County Schools
4/5/2021
187
157673
2
3'
Watauga County Schools
4/12/2021
10
4468
2
3'
Wayne County Public Schools
3/29/2021
18
17223
3
<3'
Whiteville City Schools
3/29/2021
5
2050
2
3'
Wilkes County Schools
3/24/2021
22
8469
2
3'
Wilson County Schools
3/29/2021
26
10315
2
None
Winston Salem / Forsyth County Schools
4/19/2021
79
50407
2
3'
Yadkin County Schools
4/6/2021
14
4959
2
3'
Yancey County Schools
3/22/2021
9
1889
2
<3'
TOTAL
2,229
1,281,202
Appendix B
Charter Schools in Plan A
School Name
Plan A
Start Date
Number
of
Schools
2020-21
School Year
ADM (Month
2)
Bus Seat
Occupancy
Physical
Distancing (ft)
Ascend Leadership Academy:
Lee County
4/19/2021
1
163
2
<3'
Catamount School
4/5/2021
1
56
2
3'
Central Park School For Children
4/14/2021
1
634
<1
3'
Clover Garden
4/6/2021
1
655
<1
3'
Endeavor Charter
4/13/2021
1
512
<1
3'
Healthy Start Academy
4/6/2021
1
412
3
3'
Lake Lure Classical Academy
4/12/2021
1
510
1
3'
Langtree Charter Academy
4/12/2021
1
1647
Other
3'
Research Triangle High School
4/12/2021
1
557
Other
≥6'
The Franklin School of Innovation
4/12/2020
1
520
2
3'
Uwharrie Charter Academy
4/12/2021
1
1700
2
<3'
Voyager Academy
4/12/2021
1
1353
Other
3'
Water's Edge Village School
4/1/2021
1
38
Other
3'
Willow Oak Montessori
4/12/2021
1
216
Other
3'
TOTAL
14
11,973
Appendix C
Community Transmission within - NC Counties with LEAs in Plan A*
LEA
Community Transmission Cases per 100,000
Population
(Last 7 Days)
Alleghany County Schools
63
Ashe County Schools
26
Asheboro City Schools
15
Avery County Schools
6
Beaufort County Schools
23
Bladen County Schools
183
Brunswick County Schools
7
Buncombe County Schools
8
Burke County Schools
45
Cabarrus County Schools
30
Caldwell County Schools
15
Camden County Schools
64
Carteret County Public Schools
42
Catawba County Schools
19
Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools
27
Chatham County Schools
1
Clay County Schools
187
Cleveland County Schools
6
Clinton City Schools
36
Columbus County Schools
27
Craven County Schools
2
Cumberland County Schools
38
Currituck County Schools
7
Dare County Schools
5
Davidson County Schools
10
Duplin County Schools
29
Edenton-Chowan Schools
7
LEA
Community Transmission Cases per 100,000
Population
(Last 7 Days)
Edgecombe County Public Schools
12
Elizabeth City-Pasquotank Public Schools
10
Elkin City Schools
15
Franklin County Schools
6
Gaston County Schools
13
Gates County Schools
17
Graham County Schools
95
Granville County Schools
2
Greene County Schools
0
Guilford County Schools
31
Halifax County Schools
12
Harnett County Schools
24
Haywood County Schools
3
Henderson County Schools
0
Hertford County Schools
0
Hickory City Schools
19
Hoke County Schools
18
Hyde County Schools
20
Iredell-Statesville Schools
15
Jackson County Public Schools
0
Johnston County Public Schools
32
Jones County Schools
0
Kannapolis City Schools
30
Lee County Schools
23
Lenoir County Public Schools
13
Lexington City Schools
10
Lincoln County Schools
22
Macon County Schools
8
Madison County Schools
0
Martin County Schools
36
McDowell County Schools
22
LEA
Community Transmission Cases per 100,000
Population
(Last 7 Days)
Mitchell County Schools
0
Montgomery County Schools
0
Moore County Schools
7
Mooresville Graded School District
15
Mount Airy City Schools
15
Nash County Public Schools
50
New Hanover County Schools
11
Newton Conover City Schools
19
Onslow County Schools
42
Pamlico County Schools
0
Pender County Schools
16
Perquimans County Schools
7
Person County Schools
53
Pitt County Schools
23
Polk County Schools
0
Public Schools of Robeson County
41
Randolph County School System
15
Richmond County Schools
22
Roanoke Rapids City Schools
12
Rockingham County Schools
11
Rowan-Salisbury Schools
30
Rutherford County Schools
28
Sampson County Schools
36
Scotland County Schools
46
Stanly County Schools
0
Stokes County Schools
22
Surry County Schools
15
Swain County Schools
21
Thomasville City Schools
10
Transylvania County Schools
0
Tyrrell County Schools
0
LEA
Community Transmission Cases per 100,000
Population
(Last 7 Days)
Union County Public Schools
27
Vance County Schools
0
Wake County Schools
11
Watauga County Schools
109
Wayne County Public Schools
28
Whiteville City Schools
27
Wilkes County Schools
13
Wilson County Schools
62
Winston Salem / Forsyth County Schools
41
Yadkin County Schools
8
Yancey County Schools
11
* Data per N.C. Department of Health and Human Services 6/28/2021